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What The Ukraine War Revealed About American...
David Reavill
 September 07 2024 at 03:12 pm
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Benjamin Franklin, 1767For Want of a Nail "For the want of a nail the shoe was lost, For the want of a shoe the horse was lost, For the want of a horse the rider was lost, For the want of a rider the battle was lost, For the want of a battle the kingdom was lost, And all of that for the want of a horseshoe nail." ― Benjamin Franklin Modern warfare begins in factories and manufacturing facilities. Today's armies, navies, and air forces require weapons, tanks, planes, and ships to fight any conflict. Yet America's strategic leadership repeatedly fails to understand Benjamin Franklin's simple words: Every element of that supply line must work together to provide our country's fighting men and women with the tools for battle. The preeminent example of this has been the recent shortage of 155mm artillery shells. The initial battles in Ukraine were predominantly artillery battles, as each side—Russia and Ukraine—sought to achieve strategic dominance. At the peak of this infantry struggle, Russia was firing an estimated 60,000 artillery shells daily. This staggering number caught NATO and the Ukrainians by surprise. For America, this ought to have been a wake-up call. After all, if the Ukrainians were to match the Russians, that is, achieve battlefield parity, they would use up in less than two weeks the total yearly production of America's premier artillery shell, the 155mm. By July 2023, the situation became dire; the United States could no longer supply Ukraine with the required number of artillery shells to keep up with the Russians. In what had to be one of the most humiliating moments of his Presidency, Joe Biden sat down with Fareed Zakaria of CNN and related: "This is a war relating to munitions. And they're running out of that ammunition, and we're low on it," Biden told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "And so, what I finally did, I took the recommendation of the Defense Department to – not permanently – but to allow for this transition period while we get more 155 weapons, these shells, for the Ukrainians. "https://nypost.com/2023/07/09/biden-lets-slip-during-interview-us-low-on-artillery-ammunition-rounds-as-it-tries-to-aid-ukraine/ For the first time, an American President admitted that America could not produce ammunition at a rate to match an enemy, Russia. For the careful observer, this was when Americans saw how hollow our manufacturing base was; it lay bare for all to see. Four months after the President admitted that the US did not have sufficient 155mm shells, the Army came forward requesting a $3.1 billion supplemental appropriations for more shells. Half of that amount ($1.5 Billion) would be used to purchase new shells, while the other half ($1.5 billion) would be used to start construction of new ammunition plants. This was, no doubt, good news to the nation's largest producer of 155mm shells, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant. Operated by General Dynamics, the "bones" of this plant, buildings, foundations, and so on go back to its original Locomotive manufacturer operation begun in 1908. It was then converted to a munitions plant in 1953. Production lines that go back for generations—such is the state of American manufacturing today. But there's much more to our story than a simple $3 billion fix of an ancient factory would cure. In an excellent video on the production of the 155mm shells, the US Military Channel shows how a steel billet enters the production line, is cut, rolled, fashioned, and eventually becomes a finished artillery shell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl-5K_hT-OM But what, you may ask, is a "steel billet?" Ah, the most important point. A steel billet is, as the video shows, a cylinder-shaped piece of steel milled and delivered by an outside provider. In Franklin's words, it's the "nail," the first part of the manufacturing process. And what has Washington done to provide the "nail" (the steel billet)? Nothing. In fact, it's one of these "billet" makers who has garnered much of the headlines here in Pennsylvania, as a Japanese Company, Nippon Steel, has bid to take over America's Number One Steel Producer, US Steel Corporation, headquartered in Pittsburgh, just across the state from the General Dynamic munitions plant in Scranton. But for the first time, the Ukraine War vividly demonstrated the strategic importance of steel production. Perhaps with more 155mm shells when the War began, Ukraine could have been in a better place today. Politicians across the country have been quick to condemn the takeover as anti-American. However, this sentiment must seem hollow to the thousands of US Steelworkers whose jobs are at risk. As we go to press, both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have opposed the Nippon takeover, with Biden threatening to veto the move and Donald Trump promising to do the same if elected. For generations, America has ignored its manufacturing companies. We preferred to believe that we were still the powerhouse "factory of the world" that we were many years ago. But the 155mm shell punctured that illusion as surely as it does an enemy tank. In Ukraine, we could not match the enemy's production. For the first time since before World War II, we have been outmatched in the factory. Perhaps it's time to revitalize our Rust Belt and create new, efficient, clean-running plants. It's a tall order, but in a world that's becoming increasingly hostile, it may become necessary for our very survival. "For want of a nail..." Follow me here on ThinkSpot for more stories from the ValueSide.
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Casual Shoes: Comfortable Style for Every...
boldbunnyindia
 August 15 2024 at 07:38 am
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In the world of footwear, casual shoes offer the perfect balance between comfort and style, making them a staple for everyday wear. Bold Bunny, renowned for its commitment to fashion-forward and ethical footwear, provides an exceptional range of Casual Shoes designed to cater to modern lifestyles. This article explores the benefits of casual shoes and highlights the standout options available from Bold Bunny. Casual shoes are an essential part of any wardrobe, offering the perfect blend of comfort and style for everyday wear. Whether you're running errands, meeting friends, or enjoying a leisurely weekend, the right pair of casual shoes can make all the difference. Bold Bunny, a leading name in contemporary footwear, understands the importance of versatile, comfortable, and fashionable casual shoes. Their collection reflects a commitment to quality and style, ensuring you step out in confidence every day. At Bold Bunny, casual shoes are not just about looking good—they're about feeling great too. The brand combines innovative design with premium materials to create footwear that supports your lifestyle while making a statement. From classic sneakers to sophisticated loafers, Bold Bunny’s range is crafted to meet the diverse needs of modern men who value both comfort and style. Discover how Bold Bunny’s casual shoes can enhance your wardrobe and elevate your everyday look. In a world where comfort often clashes with style, Bold Bunny bridges the gap with their thoughtfully designed casual shoes. Each pair is created with meticulous attention to detail, ensuring that you don’t have to sacrifice one for the other. Whether you’re looking for a casual sneaker for a laid-back day or a chic loafer for a more polished appearance, Bold Bunny offers options that blend ease of wear with a touch of sophistication.The Role of Casual Shoes Casual shoes are essential for a relaxed yet stylish look, suitable for a variety of occasions from casual outings to weekend adventures. Unlike formal shoes, casual footwear emphasizes comfort and versatility, allowing you to move freely while maintaining a polished appearance. Bold Bunny’s collection is designed to offer both functionality and flair, ensuring you look great whether you're heading to a casual meeting or enjoying a day out.Bold Bunny’s Casual Shoes Collection Bold Bunny offers a diverse range of casual shoes that blend contemporary design with superior comfort. Here’s a look at some of their popular options:Classic Sneakers: A staple in any casual wardrobe, Bold Bunny’s sneakers come in a variety of styles and colors. Made with premium materials and featuring modern design elements, these sneakers are perfect for everyday wear. Their versatile design makes them suitable for pairing with jeans, shorts, or casual trousers.Stylish Loafers: For those who prefer a more polished look, Bold Bunny’s loafers are an excellent choice. Available in various materials including leather and vegan options, these loafers offer a sophisticated twist on casual footwear. They are ideal for casual office environments or laid-back social events.Comfortable Slip-Ons: Slip-on shoes from Bold Bunny are designed for convenience without sacrificing style. With easy-to-wear designs and comfortable fits, these shoes are perfect for busy days when you need to get out the door quickly. They come in various finishes, from classic canvas to luxurious leather.Chic Moccasins: Combining traditional craftsmanship with modern design, Bold Bunny’s moccasins are both stylish and comfortable. These shoes feature soft, flexible materials and are perfect for casual settings, offering a timeless look that pairs well with a range of outfits.Key Features of Casual Shoes When selecting casual shoes, consider the following features to ensure optimal comfort and style:Comfort: Look for shoes with cushioned insoles, breathable materials, and flexible soles. Bold Bunny incorporates these elements into their designs to provide all-day comfort, allowing you to stay active without discomfort.Versatility: Casual shoes should be versatile enough to complement various outfits. Bold Bunny’s collection includes a range of designs and colors, making it easy to find a pair that fits seamlessly into your wardrobe.Durability: Quality materials and craftsmanship are crucial for long-lasting footwear. Bold Bunny uses premium materials and construction techniques to ensure their casual shoes stand up to daily wear and tear.Style: Even though casual shoes prioritize comfort, they should still reflect your personal style. Bold Bunny offers a range of fashionable options that allow you to express your individuality while staying comfortable.Conclusion Casual shoes are a vital component of any versatile wardrobe, offering comfort and style for everyday activities. Bold Bunny’s collection of casual footwear provides an array of options that cater to various tastes and preferences. From classic sneakers to chic moccasins, their designs are crafted with both fashion and function in mind. Explore Bold Bunny’s casual shoes to find the perfect pair that combines comfort, durability, and style, and step into your day with confidence and ease.
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Are We Headed For A Worldwide Recession? A...
David Reavill
 September 08 2024 at 04:08 pm
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Peter Tuckman, NYSE Floor Trader ** Not a week goes by that we don’t hear someone on Wall Street predict that we’re headed into a significant recession, just ahead. I have followed many of these financial pundits for years and generally respected their opinions. Today, we’ll test those prognostications with a simple, straightforward survey of the world’s major economies. We’ll look at three factors: Are the economies in these countries growing or contracting? Is inflation rising or falling? And perhaps most importantly, what is the reaction from their central banks, measured in their current interest rate policy? Read this as you would a weather report, giving the current conditions globally, to ascertain whether a storm is headed our way. Europe — Storm Clouds Are Here Europe is currently experiencing the most difficult economic situation in the world, as it is feeling the full impact of “Stagflation,” that deadly combination of low growth and higher prices. We’ve selected five countries to represent the European region: Austria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, and the United Kingdom. All are experiencing rising inflation, with either flat or declining economic growth. A principal cause of these higher prices is the loss of low-cost energy. Germany is an especially pertinent example. In 2023, Germany shut down the last nuclear power plant less than a year after losing the Nordstream II Pipeline, which supplied cheap Russian natural gas to Germany. This double whammy has caused German energy prices to skyrocket, most recently resulting in Volkswagen, the iconic German Automaker, announcing that it will likely shutter some plants next year for the first time in its history. High energy costs have caused inflation to rise across all five of our survey countries while slowing GDP growth (the Czech Republic is the sole exception, exhibiting a slight rise in GDP). This presents their central banks with a real dilemma: promote economic growth or fight inflation. Which to choose? So far, three of the central banks, the Banks of Germany, the Czech Republic, and the U.K., have already cut interest rates, and it is assumed that the other two will follow at their next meeting. Conclusion: The Survey indicates that Europe is on the verge of a major downturn, driven primarily by high energy costs. We expect lower interest rates from the European Central Bank, the ECB, meeting this week. The Global South A very different picture emerges when examining the Global South, those countries made up principally of the BRICS Nations. Of the five countries in our survey, only China exhibits a declining economic growth rate. The others, Brazil, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, are all experiencing expanding economic growth. What’s more, except for Russia, all have virtually no inflation. Russia, of course, is the exception to most of the trends within the Global South, as the War in Ukraine is weighing upon its Economy. Earlier this year, President Putin announced that the country would move to a war footing, disrupting the normal function of the “civilian” Economy. We look for the Russian Central Bank to continue fighting higher prices by maintaining its high interest rate (18%). China presents the most significant risk to economic growth. The Chinese Economy has slowed precipitously to less than 1%, a level not seen outside the Pandemic. The People’s Bank of China has held interest rates steady in its most recent meeting but look for those rates to fall if the Economy continues to slow. Undoubtedly, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is committed to maintaining economic growth and price stability in the Middle Kingdom. As Stephen Roach, retired Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman, quipped, “Xi Jinping is now the Chief Economist of China.” Conclusion: The Global South also suffers from inflation and slow growth, but those twin economic ills seem confined to two countries: inflation in Russia and slow growth in China. Of all the areas in our survey, the Global South appears to be the most resilient. However, it is not immune from a major slowdown with its trading partners, particularly in Europe and North America. The North America Trio The United States is, by far, the most significant trading country in the world, and, as such, it exerts tremendous influence over the Global Economy. However, it lost much of its financial influence when it drove Russia off of the US/EU trading platform, the SWIFT International Settlements System. In Q2, the United States announced that its Economy grew at 3.0%, one of the highest levels around and double the growth rate of the quarter before. Combined with a declining inflation rate, this should put the Federal Reserve in a favorable position to maintain its current interest rate policy. However, as we’ve seen, much of the world suffers from slowing economic growth, a sign of eminent recession. This is especially true for our chief allies in Europe. Moreover, the Fed’s current monetary policy is much more restrictive than it appears. Remember that Quantitative Easing we enjoyed during the COVID-19 pandemic when the Fed grew its “balance sheet” by roughly $7 Trillion? Well, it’s time to take that QE back. Since July 2022, the Fed has been doing just that, removing approximately $1.8 trillion from the financial system. (Briefly: it’s done this by selling the Treasury Securities it bought earlier, taking money out of circulation, and reducing its balance sheet.) It’s hard medicine, but most economists agree that it’s needed to maintain our financial system’s long-term stablity. In short, we’re paying back now for the stimulus we got earlier. This suggests that the Fed is continuing its fight against inflation. Many on Wall Street, myself included, believe that the Fed has gone too far in fighting inflation and should now be moving to forestall a developing economic slowdown, like what’s developing globally. Six of the 13 countries in our survey are experiencing slowing economic growth, while 3 or 4 more have very tepid (but still positive) growth. Rising inflation remains confined to Europe, with its higher energy costs, and Russia, with its war economy. Of course, whether to promote economic growth or fight inflation is a judgment call. However, in his latest remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Chairman Jerome Powell seemed amenable to cutting interest rates, but not just yet. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20240823a.htm Increasingly, the Global Economy hangs by a thin thread. Five of the 13 countries’ central Banks have already cut interest rates, with the European Central Bank expected to cut this week. They all sense that the current risk is to economic growth. Indeed, Chairman Powell said that the “direction of travel is now clear.” How long will it take the Federal Reserve to begin? ** Follow me here on ThinkSpot for more stories from the ValueSide.
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